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The City is braced for a big rise in unemployment today and a gloomy outlook from the Bank of England, which will suggest the recession is far from over.
Official figures are expected to show that the widest measure of unemployment shot up to about 2 million in the final quarter of last year, while claimant count figures could show a leap for January alone of 100,000, as Woolworths workers sacked last month hit the dole queues.
There have only been two previous six-figure increases in the claimant count since comparable records began in 1971 - one during the recession of the early 1980s and a record 119,000 rise in March 1991.
"It is very possible that January could see a six-figure rise in the number of jobless," said Howard Archer, economist at Global Insight consultancy. "Reports of companies laying off workers are now depressingly commonplace, while an increasing number of companies are folding. Very worryingly, latest labour hiring surveys point to even sharper employment reductions." A further 17,000 high street jobs were at risk last night as talks between JJB Sports and its banks come to a head, and the owner of Barratts shoes, Stylo, warned 5,400 jobs were at risk unless its creditors backed a plan to restructure the business.
Wigan-based JJB Sports, which employs 12,000 staff, has until tomorrow to agree new terms with its lenders or it could be forced into administration.
Data released last month showed that the claimant count shot up by 78,000 in December to 1.157 million, 3.6% of the workforce, the highest in eight years.
The wider Labour Force Survey measure, which records those seeking work but not claiming benefit, rose to 1.923 million in the three months to November, the highest since Labour came to power in 1997. On that measure the jobless rate is 6.1%.
Analysts think that number will approach, and may have breached, the 2 million mark in the three months to December. If it does, it will confirm the prediction made last summer by the Bank of England monetary policy committee's labour market expert, David Blanchflower.
He thinks the jobless total could hit 3 million or more by next year.
The unemployment figures are likely to cause fresh concerns about the economy after Gordon Brown last week used the word "depression" to describe the economic situation, while the children's secretary, Ed Balls, said at the weekend the world was facing its worst recession in 100 years.
The Bank of England governor, Mervyn King, will today unveil the monetary policy committee's latest quarterly forecasts for the economy and inflation, which are likely to have been revised downwards since the reports in November and August. The Bank has cut rates by four percentage points since October and last week said the first half of this year could be as weak as the fourth quarter of 2008, when the economy contracted by 1.5%.
The inflation report is likely to predict growth remaining weak for some time, and King will be asked why the MPC failed to see the downturn coming - in September some members were arguing that interest rates should be raised rather than cut.
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Official figures are expected to show that the widest measure of unemployment shot up to about 2 million in the final quarter of last year, while claimant count figures could show a leap for January alone of 100,000, as Woolworths workers sacked last month hit the dole queues.
There have only been two previous six-figure increases in the claimant count since comparable records began in 1971 - one during the recession of the early 1980s and a record 119,000 rise in March 1991.
"It is very possible that January could see a six-figure rise in the number of jobless," said Howard Archer, economist at Global Insight consultancy. "Reports of companies laying off workers are now depressingly commonplace, while an increasing number of companies are folding. Very worryingly, latest labour hiring surveys point to even sharper employment reductions." A further 17,000 high street jobs were at risk last night as talks between JJB Sports and its banks come to a head, and the owner of Barratts shoes, Stylo, warned 5,400 jobs were at risk unless its creditors backed a plan to restructure the business.
Wigan-based JJB Sports, which employs 12,000 staff, has until tomorrow to agree new terms with its lenders or it could be forced into administration.
Data released last month showed that the claimant count shot up by 78,000 in December to 1.157 million, 3.6% of the workforce, the highest in eight years.
The wider Labour Force Survey measure, which records those seeking work but not claiming benefit, rose to 1.923 million in the three months to November, the highest since Labour came to power in 1997. On that measure the jobless rate is 6.1%.
Analysts think that number will approach, and may have breached, the 2 million mark in the three months to December. If it does, it will confirm the prediction made last summer by the Bank of England monetary policy committee's labour market expert, David Blanchflower.
He thinks the jobless total could hit 3 million or more by next year.
The unemployment figures are likely to cause fresh concerns about the economy after Gordon Brown last week used the word "depression" to describe the economic situation, while the children's secretary, Ed Balls, said at the weekend the world was facing its worst recession in 100 years.
The Bank of England governor, Mervyn King, will today unveil the monetary policy committee's latest quarterly forecasts for the economy and inflation, which are likely to have been revised downwards since the reports in November and August. The Bank has cut rates by four percentage points since October and last week said the first half of this year could be as weak as the fourth quarter of 2008, when the economy contracted by 1.5%.
The inflation report is likely to predict growth remaining weak for some time, and King will be asked why the MPC failed to see the downturn coming - in September some members were arguing that interest rates should be raised rather than cut.
- Unemployment and employment statistics
- Redundancy
- Recession
- Economics
- Economic policy
- JJB Sports
- Bank of England
- Work & careers
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