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Women will lose out to men in the race for new jobs created as Britain emerges from recession, according to a government-funded report. A major shift in the battle of the sexes looms as men grab both the majority of new posts generated over the next eight years and a bigger share of jobs in previously female-dominated industries, according to the study from the Employment and Skills Commission.
The findings are surprising, given that girls outstrip boys from GCSE results to degree level: only last year senior policymakers were speculating that women could soon form the majority of the workforce.
However, they suggest that the seemingly unstoppable rise of working women - which saw female employment rates rising sharply from the 1970s well into the 21st century - may have peaked. The commission's report, to be published this week by the skills secretary, John Denham, predicts women will hold down only 47% of all jobs by 2017 - a smaller share than in 2007 - with men moving in on female domains as they are squeezed out of traditional jobs like manufacturing.
The report, Working Futures 2007-2017, admits prospects for the next two years are unpredictable, given that the "risk of a significant recession is now much higher" even than last year, when its research began. But it concludes that up to two million jobs will be created over the decade.
Denham will outline plans to ensure that appropriately skilled staff are ready for hiring in an upturn. He will argue that Britain must fight to keep "either/or" jobs that could be done either in the UK or overseas.
However, the report suggests wider social consequences from this recession, contrasting sharply with the 1980s when many formerly stay-at-home mothers went out to work as their husbands lost their jobs. By 2004, more than 70% of women were working outside the home, compared with only 42% in 1971.
Analysts suggested the future was female as employers sought "soft skills" like communication, while expanded childcare and maternity rights helped working mothers pursue careers.
But while the number of working women should still rise by a million over the coming decade, the commission foresees 1.2 million more men in work. Men are now working in "many more parts of the service sector", the report concludes: while women previously favoured these jobs because many could be done part-time, it predicts "significant increases" in male part-timers, too.
The findings come as Peter Mandelson, the business secretary, calls for Britain not to pull up the drawbridge to foreign labour. He will use a trade mission to India this week to encourage entrepreneurs to set up in Britain, creating jobs, and even to encourage Indian businesses to buy up British firms.
"Anyone who thinks we can tackle this downturn by shutting the doors on globalisation risks making the downturn deeper and longer than it otherwise would be," he said.
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