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Clouds have hung over the housing market since this time last year, with prices falling, demand plummeting and buyers struggling to find a mortgage.
But optimists dared to ask whether the first glimmer of sunshine had appeared on the horizon yesterday, after figures showed a modest increase in loans given to first-time buyers and some estate agents reporting possible sightings of "green shoots" in the market.
Data from the Council of Mortgage Lenders showed 15,400 loans were given to first-time buyers in October, a 15% increase on the previous month. In total there were 39,000 home purchase loans, worth £5.5bn, a 10% increase in value on September.
Could this be the sign of a change in the weather? "It would be nice to think so, but unfortunately we don't see this as a turning point," said James Tatch, an economist at CML, which takes its data from banks, building societies and mortgage lenders.
"There's a typical seasonal bounceback in October, and there could be some additional pick-up because people delayed buying houses over the summer because of the confusion of stamp duty. If you look year on year, house purchase lending is down 52%."
Mortgage lenders were continuing with tightened criteria for lending, he said, which meant first-time buyers had to find big deposits before contemplating buying a home. Analysts agreed that yesterday's data did not signal a shift in the market, although some said that there were areas where there are signs of a pick-up. Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, said that in parts of the south-east, south-west and West Midlands, more buyers are "looking in the shop window".
"We're seeing a bit of interest out there, which is not surprising given interest rates are low and house prices are falling," he said. He also observed a potential plateau in the number of transactions, although prices continue to fall.
Peter Bolton King, chief executive of the National Association of Estate Agents, said his organisation observed a "slight" jump in first-time buyers from September to October, but added: "There is a danger that after months of dismal figures, one jumps on to any positive news."
There were also cautious hints of an upturn in yesterday's RICS survey of estate agents, with reports of "a slight uplift in sales as vendors accept more realistic offers" and "a very slight but noticeable improvement in sales".
"We sense that the 'bottom of the market' may well have been reached because during the last two weeks the rate of cancelled sales has improved significantly, thus indicating a return of confidence," said Andrew Grant, an estate agent from Worcester. "Is this a green shoot emerging?"
"There is probably a very slight bit of green showing," said David Johnson, partner at Leicester-based estate agent Readings Hope & Mann.
"There is, I think, a willingness out there among buyers to get back on the bottom rung of the housing ladder."
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